Quantcast
Channel: acadia
Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 24

The Sleeper Candidate Who Could Derail Susan Collins

0
0

Maine Democrats have a wonderful senate candidate in Sara Gideon. She is already leading the polls, although her lead is within the margin of error in this tight race. But there is another candidate in the race who may in the end cost Collins the race, due to the quirks of Maine’s independent history and Maine Republicans’ aversion to Ranked Choice Voting.

Maine Republicans who hate Collins (and there is a big percentage, surveys show anywhere from 30 — 45% of Maine Republicans disapprove of Collins) also hate Ranked Choice Voting (RCV). Recent polling showed almost 60% of Republicans voting in the competitive CD-2 Maine primary refused to do ranked choice voting. If even 2-3% of these anti-RCV Republicans vote for Linn and don't do any additional ranking, Collins is likely done. She cannot afford to lose 2-3% of the vote in a race where she is already behind.
But 2-3% of votes for Linn is a conservative estimate. Maine has a proud (some would say bizarre) history of supporting independent candidates. Independent Angus King is our senator now. Our ballots have been littered with independents who pull 10-50% of the vote for decades. It’s the key reason Maine voters decided to implement ranked choice voting. The Independent candidate Eliot Cutler sunk the Dems’ chances in the governor’s race in both 2010 and 2014, garnering 36% of the vote in 2010.
Based on ME CD-2 voting in the past (with CD-2 representing half of the voters in the state), Linn could easily get 10% of the vote in this district, carpetbagging gadfly that he is. Look at the results in the 2014 CD-2 congressional race. Big national toss up race, no ranked choice voting at that time, and 11% of voters picked Blaine Richardson, a hard-core conservative with little name recognition, over the Republican candidate. It’s hard to believe many of those 11 percenters wouldn't support a pro-Trump option. They’ve already shown just 6 years ago they are willing to throw their votes away to stand up for their wingnut beliefs. And the Maine Republican Party has shot themselves in the foot with their scorched earth approach to RCV, discouraging Republican voters from using it.
If Max Linn stays in, he will be on the debate stage. There are only 4 candidates on the  ballot, and our debates always include all candidates who make the ballot. Just imagine what Collins will face on that debate stage.
She will be asked if she supports Trump. She has repeatedly refused to say she supports Trump. Linn will proudly endorse Trump. If Collins does say she supports Trump, she loses even more of the independents and moderates she depends on to win. If she doesn’t, even more conservatives defect to Linn, with many of them refusing to list Collins as a second choice with RCV.
She will be asked who she vote for as a second choice on her ranked choice ballot. She can’t say she doesn’t support the ranking system, because she likely depends on the second choices of others to win. That alone will piss off the majority of Maine Republicans. If she says she will list Linn as her second choice, she alienates moderates and progressives even more. But if she doesn’t say Linn is her second choice, she further angers the small but crucial set of Linn voters who are already disgusted by the lawsuit stunt her team pulled in trying to get him off the ballot.
The counter argument is there is a Green Party independent, Lisa Savage, who will pull from the Democratic tally. But that won't hurt Gideon much if at all. The overwhelming percentage of voters who might select the progressive independent will do RCV and throw their second vote to Gideon. This is what happened in the ME CD-2 race in 2018. Jared Golden was behind after the ballots were first tallied. But he picked up the overwhelming majority of the second choice votes of the other two progressive candidates and ended up winning the race.
So what can you do to help? Please throw a little attention Linn's way. All he wants is publicity. The more he gets, the more likely he is to stay in the race. He has just set up social media accounts and a website. Follow his Twitter account.Visit his website. My fear is the guy is such a wildcard he could still leave the race at any moment.
My prediction at this point is that Sara Gideon is going to win a little over 50% on the first ballot. Mainers, especially Maine women, are more disgusted at Collins than we are at Trump, and that’s a mighty high bar. I live in CD-2. I can’t tell you how many women I’ve spoken to who voted for Collins in the past who are embarrassed and ashamed by their past support. Her support among moderate, independent, college educated women has completely collapsed. Only an anecdote, but it’s backed up by the polling data. Collins continues to blame her polling woes on everyone but herself. All the whining and denigration of Democrats whose votes she needs is a bad look. Yet she’s even convinced the DC pundit class that things aren’t as dire as they seem here on the ground.  So let’s all do our part to throw her sinking campaign an anvil. Go Max Go!


Viewing all articles
Browse latest Browse all 24

Latest Images

Trending Articles





Latest Images